Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Marner 43.1% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Marner leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Marner 66.3%
Defensive zone
Marner 56.1%
Neutral zone
Marner 58.2%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Duchene
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Duchene
Marner
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Marner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Marner
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
4
Duchene
Marner
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
41.5% (282)
+9.7%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
40.0% (5)
+20.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
25.0% (12)
-8.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Duchene shoots left. Marner is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Duchene
Marner
Home
51.6% (182)
36.1% (158)
Away
52.2% (201)
46.1% (141)
By Period
Duchene
Marner
P1
49.6%
41.6%
P2
56.2%
40.2%
P3
48.6%
40.5%
Final 5 min
51.1%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 04:37 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:31 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 12:24 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 04:04 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 07:18 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 18:29 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 09:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |