Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.4% vs 52.1%). Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Barron shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Barron 51.3% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 64.7%
Defensive zone
Barron 54.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 51.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Duchene
Barron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Duchene
Barron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Barron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Barron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Barron
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
52.6% (152)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
45.5% (11)
-1.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barron shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Barron is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Duchene
Barron
Home
54.9% (408)
46.1% (76)
Away
50.0% (432)
57.5% (87)
By Period
Duchene
Barron
P1
52.5%
63.0%
P2
51.7%
51.0%
P3
53.6%
45.6%
Final 5 min
53.3%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Barron
48.0%▲
41.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |