Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Barron 47.1% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 79.6%
Defensive zone
Barron 87.1%
Neutral zone
Barron 56.1%
Result
Morgan Barron favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Duchene
Barron
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Duchene
Barron
Last 5: Duchene 2-3 Barron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Barron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
0
2
Duchene
Barron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Barron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Barron
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
48.8% (371)
+2.4%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
33.3% (3)
+27.1%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
42.0% (174)
-25.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barron shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Barron is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (379).
Home / Away
Duchene
Barron
Home
51.6% (182)
44.9% (283)
Away
52.2% (201)
48.3% (265)
By Period
Duchene
Barron
P1
49.6%
44.8%
P2
56.2%
50.7%
P3
48.6%
43.6%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Barron
48.0%▲
41.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:58 | Neutral | Morgan Barron |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:00 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |