Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Barron shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Barron 48.2% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 89.9%
Defensive zone
Barron 57.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 74.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.5%
69.5%
30.5%
Duchene
Barron
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Duchene
Barron
Last 7: Duchene 3-4 Barron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Barron
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
0
3
Duchene
Barron
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Barron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Barron
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
49.5% (731)
+4.4%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
50.0% (6)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
42.6% (209)
+6.5%
On power play, Duchene has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barron shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Barron is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Home / Away
Duchene
Barron
Home
55.6% (6,411)
45.5% (457)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
50.3% (489)
By Period
Duchene
Barron
P1
54.5%
47.6%
P2
54.5%
51.3%
P3
53.4%
45.0%
OT
56.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Barron
48.0%▲
41.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:58 | Neutral | Morgan Barron |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:00 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 05:03 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |