Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Suzuki on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Suzuki 52.4% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 56.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 54.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 62.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Duchene
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Duchene
Suzuki
Last 6: Duchene 4-2 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Suzuki
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
1
2
Duchene
Suzuki
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Suzuki
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
51.3% (1,096)
+5.2%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
59.9% (157)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
56.9% (58)
-34.7%
On penalty kill, Suzuki has a +34.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Suzuki is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (961).
Home / Away
Duchene
Suzuki
Home
56.6% (318)
54.2% (638)
Away
56.4% (319)
51.0% (673)
By Period
Duchene
Suzuki
P1
57.2%
51.5%
P2
55.1%
53.3%
P3
55.6%
52.4%
OT
81.3%
58.3%
Final 5 min
47.9%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 11:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 17:32 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |