Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Cates 45.1% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 90.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 59.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 70.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 90.3%
90.3%
9.7%
Duchene
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Duchene
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
46.7% (912)
+6.3%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
33.9% (56)
+15.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
35.0% (137)
+8.8%
On power play, Duchene has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Duchene
Cates
Home
54.9% (408)
46.1% (521)
Away
50.0% (432)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Duchene
Cates
P1
52.5%
48.0%
P2
51.7%
42.3%
P3
53.6%
44.3%
OT
33.3%
31.3%
Final 5 min
53.3%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 12:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |