Matt Duchene vs Noah Cates

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Matt Duchene holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Duchene 51.6% vs Cates 45.5% (+7.1%)
Offensive zone Duchene 50.8%
Defensive zone Cates 54.4%
Neutral zone Cates 57.0%
Result Noah Cates favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Duchene Cates
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded

Situation Matchup

Situation
Duchene
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
45.4% (712)
+5.8%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
42.2% (102)
+18.2%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
44.7% (47)
-28.0%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +28.0% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Cates shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Duchene
Cates
Home
51.6% (182)
46.3% (423)
Away
52.2% (201)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Duchene
Cates
P1
49.6%
46.3%
P2
56.2%
47.1%
P3
48.6%
42.1%
OT
60.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
51.1%
44.0%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%
52.0%
52.0%
Cates
46.0%
50.0%
44.9%