Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Cates 43.2% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 96.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 77.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 90.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 94.0%
94.0%
6.0%
Duchene
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
Duchene
Cates
Last 9: Duchene 8-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
1
Duchene
Cates
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
44.1% (2,742)
+9.8%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
43.0% (242)
+13.9%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
34.9% (373)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Duchene
Cates
Home
55.6% (6,411)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Duchene
Cates
P1
54.5%
44.5%
P2
54.5%
43.5%
P3
53.4%
41.2%
OT
56.3%
29.4%
Final 5 min
53.7%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 12:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:41 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 07:05 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 01:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 14:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |