Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Acciari on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 18 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Acciari 51.3% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Acciari leads 22-14 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 55.1%
Defensive zone
Acciari 91.9%
Neutral zone
Acciari 70.9%
Result
Noel Acciari favored at 72.7%
27.3%
72.7%
Duchene
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
22
(36 meetings)
14
22
Duchene
Acciari
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
10
2
Duchene
Acciari
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
2
16
Duchene
Acciari
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Acciari
2
4
Duchene
Acciari
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
52.8% (3,276)
+1.1%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
48.2% (85)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
47.1% (1,061)
+2.0%
On power play, Duchene has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Acciari is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,236).
Home / Away
Duchene
Acciari
Home
55.6% (6,411)
52.0% (2,115)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
50.7% (2,307)
By Period
Duchene
Acciari
P1
54.5%
52.2%
P2
54.5%
51.5%
P3
53.4%
50.5%
OT
56.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Acciari
38.0%▼
46.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 15:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 15:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 06:50 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:43 | Offensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:02 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 04:32 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 15:42 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 03:42 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 10:26 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 2 | 14:14 | Offensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 4, 2021 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 2 | 19:54 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |