Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +19.1% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Buchnevich 41.5% (+19.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 55.2%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 52.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 50.9%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Duchene
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Duchene
Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Buchnevich
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
1
Duchene
Buchnevich
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
1
Duchene
Buchnevich
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
37.6% (197)
+18.9%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
50.0% (6)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
0.0% (3)
+22.2%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. Buchnevich is 38.7% vs left-shot opponents (142).
Home / Away
Duchene
Buchnevich
Home
56.6% (318)
43.0% (114)
Away
56.4% (319)
30.4% (92)
By Period
Duchene
Buchnevich
P1
57.2%
40.0%
P2
55.1%
35.7%
P3
55.6%
35.7%
Final 5 min
47.9%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 10:14 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 00:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |