Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +14.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Buchnevich 42.1% (+14.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 86.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 81.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 78.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 82.5%
82.5%
17.5%
Duchene
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Buchnevich
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Buchnevich
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Buchnevich
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Buchnevich
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
37.7% (154)
+13.5%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
42.9% (14)
+17.5%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
30.0% (10)
-13.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Buchnevich is 34.6% vs left-shot opponents (107).
Home / Away
Duchene
Buchnevich
Home
51.6% (182)
37.4% (91)
Away
52.2% (201)
37.9% (87)
By Period
Duchene
Buchnevich
P1
49.6%
38.9%
P2
56.2%
31.5%
P3
48.6%
42.0%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
37.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 12:46 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 12:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 06:22 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 14:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |