Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.9% vs Carpenter 52.0% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 63.5%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 56.4%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 60.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Duchene
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Duchene
Carpenter
Last 6: Duchene 3-3 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
3
Duchene
Carpenter
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (1,013)
53.6% (267)
+1.8%
Power Play
56.3% (192)
28.6% (7)
+27.7%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
50.0% (32)
-8.8%
On power play, Duchene has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Duchene is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (399).
Duchene shoots left. Carpenter is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Duchene
Carpenter
Home
56.2% (642)
47.6% (145)
Away
54.3% (580)
57.1% (161)
By Period
Duchene
Carpenter
P1
56.2%
51.7%
P2
56.5%
47.6%
P3
52.9%
57.4%
Final 5 min
52.6%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 05:04 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 11:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 03:02 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 02:44 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2 | 19:42 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |