Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs Carpenter 51.2% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 86.1%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 88.5%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 64.7%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 88.5%
11.5%
88.5%
Duchene
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Duchene
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (162)
53.2% (299)
-6.3%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
33.3% (3)
+39.9%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
46.5% (86)
+53.5%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +53.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Duchene is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. Carpenter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Duchene
Carpenter
Home
58.4% (125)
54.6% (207)
Away
48.4% (95)
48.1% (181)
By Period
Duchene
Carpenter
P1
56.9%
52.3%
P2
52.5%
51.5%
P3
51.9%
50.8%
Final 5 min
52.8%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 12:00 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |