Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 20-13 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 93.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 58.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 73.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Duchene
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
13
(33 meetings)
20
13
Duchene
Carpenter
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
5
Duchene
Carpenter
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
5
6
Duchene
Carpenter
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
8
2
Duchene
Carpenter
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
49.6% (2,027)
+4.3%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
41.5% (41)
+15.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
43.9% (467)
+5.2%
On power play, Duchene has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Duchene
Carpenter
Home
55.6% (6,411)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Duchene
Carpenter
P1
54.5%
49.6%
P2
54.5%
47.7%
P3
53.4%
48.0%
OT
56.3%
55.6%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 06:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 12:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 12:00 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 21, 2020 | 2 | 17:48 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 03:16 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 14:02 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 00:12 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 19:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 17:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 18:04 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 15:11 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 05:04 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 11:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |