Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Carpenter 52.2% (-1.1%)
Offensive zone
Duchene 75.4%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 77.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 53.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Duchene
Carpenter
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (193)
53.1% (113)
+0.8%
Power Play
49.2% (65)
100.0% (1)
-50.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
60.0% (10)
+40.0%
On power play, Carpenter has a +50.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Duchene is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. Carpenter is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Duchene
Carpenter
Home
54.9% (113)
58.5% (65)
Away
51.4% (146)
49.2% (59)
By Period
Duchene
Carpenter
P1
54.9%
65.8%
P2
52.7%
50.0%
P3
51.9%
47.9%
Final 5 min
60.6%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
54.0%