Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 88.1%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 52.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 75.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
Duchene
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Duchene
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Carpenter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
48.8% (404)
+7.7%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
100.0% (1)
-38.7%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
43.6% (101)
-21.4%
On power play, Carpenter has a +38.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
Duchene
Carpenter
Home
56.6% (318)
48.9% (274)
Away
56.4% (319)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Duchene
Carpenter
P1
57.2%
51.9%
P2
55.1%
49.4%
P3
55.6%
41.8%
OT
81.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 06:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 12:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |