Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Duchene wins 62.7% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.3% vs Carpenter 44.1% (+13.0%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 95.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 51.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 87.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 82.2%
82.2%
17.8%
Duchene
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
Duchene
Carpenter
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Carpenter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
2
Duchene
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
1
Duchene
Carpenter
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (579)
46.2% (474)
+9.8%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
28.6% (7)
+30.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
32.6% (129)
-7.6%
On power play, Duchene has a +30.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Duchene is 62.7% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Duchene shoots left. Carpenter is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Duchene
Carpenter
Home
54.9% (375)
46.5% (303)
Away
57.5% (320)
39.7% (307)
By Period
Duchene
Carpenter
P1
58.3%
44.2%
P2
56.7%
40.4%
P3
53.1%
44.2%
OT
62.5%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.5%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.1%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2020 | 2 | 17:48 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 03:16 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 14:02 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 00:12 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 19:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 17:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 18:04 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 15:11 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |