Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.0% vs McLeod 46.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 57.5%
Defensive zone
McLeod 72.9%
Neutral zone
McLeod 55.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Duchene
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Duchene
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (177)
48.2% (587)
+3.2%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
49.3% (67)
+25.7%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
39.5% (210)
-19.5%
On power play, Duchene has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Duchene is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (121).
Duchene shoots left. McLeod is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Home / Away
Duchene
McLeod
Home
48.8% (41)
47.3% (450)
Away
52.3% (149)
44.9% (414)
By Period
Duchene
McLeod
P1
47.6%
52.6%
P2
62.3%
43.3%
P3
46.2%
43.6%
OT
0.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
51.0%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
51.6%
McLeod
50.0%▬
50.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:52 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |