Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.4% vs 52.3%). Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs McLeod 52.1% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 59.1%
Defensive zone
McLeod 72.0%
Neutral zone
McLeod 55.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Duchene
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Duchene
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
McLeod
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
52.9% (904)
+0.1%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
57.6% (59)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
49.0% (241)
-5.2%
On power play, McLeod has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. McLeod is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Duchene
McLeod
Home
54.9% (408)
51.8% (612)
Away
50.0% (432)
52.9% (592)
By Period
Duchene
McLeod
P1
52.5%
55.4%
P2
51.7%
50.8%
P3
53.6%
51.6%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |