Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs McLeod 47.8% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 69.1%
Defensive zone
McLeod 78.2%
Neutral zone
McLeod 57.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Duchene
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Duchene
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
49.2% (796)
+2.0%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
44.8% (87)
+15.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
43.3% (263)
-26.6%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +26.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Duchene
McLeod
Home
51.6% (182)
49.2% (575)
Away
52.2% (201)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Duchene
McLeod
P1
49.6%
52.8%
P2
56.2%
45.1%
P3
48.6%
45.6%
OT
60.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:52 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |