Matt Duchene vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.3% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 63.4%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 68.5%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 58.0%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
2
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
51.0% (408)
+5.5%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
0.0% (6)
+61.3%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
35.9% (78)
-13.7%
On power play, Duchene has a +61.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (339).
Home / Away
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
56.6% (318)
50.8% (258)
Away
56.4% (319)
44.9% (234)
By Period
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
57.2%
51.6%
P2
55.1%
45.2%
P3
55.6%
47.6%
OT
81.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 11:27 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:59 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |