Matt Duchene vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.7% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 51.3%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 55.5%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 58.4%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 5: Duchene 1-4 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
3
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
50.3% (479)
+2.7%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
50.0% (28)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
30.0% (50)
+13.8%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
54.9% (408)
48.9% (270)
Away
50.0% (432)
48.1% (287)
By Period
Duchene
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
52.5%
48.7%
P2
51.7%
50.0%
P3
53.6%
47.3%
OT
33.3%
36.4%
Final 5 min
53.3%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 12:41 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 12:26 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |