Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Duchene wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.9% vs Kuraly 53.2% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 74.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 76.6%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 56.6%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Duchene
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Duchene
Kuraly
Last 10: Duchene 3-7 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
7
Duchene
Kuraly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
2
Duchene
Kuraly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (1,013)
54.5% (464)
+0.9%
Power Play
56.3% (192)
0.0% (1)
+56.3%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
50.0% (66)
-8.8%
On power play, Duchene has a +56.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Duchene is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Duchene shoots left. Kuraly is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kuraly
Home
56.2% (642)
52.3% (281)
Away
54.3% (580)
55.6% (250)
By Period
Duchene
Kuraly
P1
56.2%
56.0%
P2
56.5%
60.8%
P3
52.9%
44.3%
OT
64.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.6%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2019 | OT | 02:34 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 16, 2019 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 3 | 05:08 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 3 | 01:08 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 10:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 07:28 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 07:20 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 01:43 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 2 | 17:32 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 2 | 14:15 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 12:17 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 1 | 09:17 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 1 | 00:42 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |