Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Kuraly 50.1% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 82.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 78.0%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 57.9%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Duchene
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Duchene
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
51.8% (444)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
45.3% (150)
-28.6%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kuraly
Home
51.6% (182)
54.6% (304)
Away
52.2% (201)
45.5% (290)
By Period
Duchene
Kuraly
P1
49.6%
55.2%
P2
56.2%
45.7%
P3
48.6%
49.5%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |