Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs Kuraly 49.5% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 84.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 89.0%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 55.8%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 89.0%
11.0%
89.0%
Duchene
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Duchene
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
3
Duchene
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (162)
52.3% (982)
-5.4%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
41.9% (43)
+31.3%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
39.2% (245)
+60.8%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +60.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Duchene is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Duchene shoots left. Kuraly is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (859).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kuraly
Home
58.4% (125)
50.3% (680)
Away
48.4% (95)
48.5% (590)
By Period
Duchene
Kuraly
P1
56.9%
49.5%
P2
52.5%
49.6%
P3
51.9%
49.0%
OT
80.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
52.8%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2021 | 3 | 14:43 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 10:54 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 19:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |