Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Monahan 54.5% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 52.4%
Defensive zone
Monahan 56.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 51.0%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Duchene
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Duchene
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Duchene
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
57.1% (871)
-0.6%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
53.1% (262)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
44.6% (139)
-22.4%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Duchene
Monahan
Home
56.6% (318)
55.3% (644)
Away
56.4% (319)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Duchene
Monahan
P1
57.2%
53.9%
P2
55.1%
55.3%
P3
55.6%
54.4%
OT
81.3%
76.5%
Final 5 min
47.9%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 11:31 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 17:18 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 02:14 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 16:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |