Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 32 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Monahan 51.3% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 36-28 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 55.7%
Defensive zone
Monahan 58.4%
Neutral zone
Monahan 56.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Duchene
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
28
-
36
(64 meetings)
28
36
Duchene
Monahan
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
12
20
Duchene
Monahan
32 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
8
5
Duchene
Monahan
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
8
11
Duchene
Monahan
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
51.1% (11,356)
+2.8%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
53.7% (2,580)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
46.0% (766)
+3.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Home / Away
Duchene
Monahan
Home
55.6% (6,411)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Duchene
Monahan
P1
54.5%
50.9%
P2
54.5%
51.7%
P3
53.4%
51.0%
OT
56.3%
53.5%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 11:31 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 17:18 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 02:14 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 16:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 2 | 16:01 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 1 | 15:27 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 1 | 10:15 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 9, 2018 | 3 | 00:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2018 | 2 | 13:51 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2018 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 1 | 11:26 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 1 | 05:18 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 4, 2017 | 3 | 13:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 4, 2017 | 2 | 15:46 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 4, 2017 | 2 | 00:42 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |