Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.9% vs Aho 52.4% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 64.2%
Defensive zone
Aho 57.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 52.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Duchene
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Duchene
Aho
Last 9: Duchene 4-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Duchene
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Duchene
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Duchene
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (248)
52.4% (622)
+3.2%
Power Play
45.3% (53)
60.7% (28)
-15.4%
On power play, Aho has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Duchene is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Duchene shoots left. Aho is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Duchene
Aho
Home
54.7% (150)
54.9% (359)
Away
53.0% (151)
50.5% (333)
By Period
Duchene
Aho
P1
51.1%
51.6%
P2
57.8%
53.3%
P3
52.4%
52.7%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.1%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.8%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 07:14 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 1 | 14:33 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 3 | 12:47 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 3 | 09:21 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 1 | 11:43 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 16:51 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 12:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |