Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Aho 51.2% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 64.5%
Defensive zone
Aho 67.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 50.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Duchene
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Duchene
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Duchene
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Duchene
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (193)
48.5% (778)
+5.4%
Power Play
49.2% (65)
63.4% (191)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
50.8% (65)
+49.2%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +49.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Duchene shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Duchene
Aho
Home
54.9% (113)
51.3% (530)
Away
51.4% (146)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Duchene
Aho
P1
54.9%
50.0%
P2
52.7%
51.3%
P3
51.9%
52.1%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
60.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 19:01 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 18:51 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |