Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 16 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Aho 51.2% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 23-23 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 55.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 52.7%
Neutral zone
Aho 51.3%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Duchene
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
23
(46 meetings)
23
23
Duchene
Aho
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
10
10
Duchene
Aho
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
7
9
Duchene
Aho
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
4
Duchene
Aho
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
50.1% (6,619)
+3.8%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
58.9% (1,310)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
46.3% (464)
+2.8%
On even strength, Duchene has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Duchene
Aho
Home
55.6% (6,411)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Duchene
Aho
P1
54.5%
51.1%
P2
54.5%
52.0%
P3
53.4%
50.7%
OT
56.3%
48.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 19:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 16:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 15:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 07:46 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 04:16 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 17:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 14:18 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 12:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 10:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 11:56 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 01:33 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 19:01 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 18:51 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 18, 2022 | 3 | 14:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 07:14 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 17, 2021 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |