Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Aho 50.0% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 57.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 59.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 52.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Duchene
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Duchene
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
49.9% (851)
+1.3%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
53.5% (144)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
43.3% (60)
-26.6%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +26.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Duchene
Aho
Home
51.6% (182)
53.2% (554)
Away
52.2% (201)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Duchene
Aho
P1
49.6%
49.1%
P2
56.2%
50.8%
P3
48.6%
49.7%
OT
60.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
51.1%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 19:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |