Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 57.0% vs Crosby 51.6% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 70.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 72.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 65.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Duchene
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Duchene
Crosby
Last 8: Duchene 6-2 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Crosby
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (527)
51.9% (1,456)
+4.6%
Power Play
61.6% (185)
52.8% (392)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
59.3% (27)
39.0% (59)
+20.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Duchene is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Duchene shoots left. Crosby is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,186).
Home / Away
Duchene
Crosby
Home
57.6% (403)
52.4% (976)
Away
58.3% (336)
51.0% (931)
By Period
Duchene
Crosby
P1
61.4%
51.6%
P2
58.5%
53.1%
P3
54.9%
51.0%
OT
40.0%
40.5%
Final 5 min
62.1%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2015 | 2 | 09:21 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 9, 2015 | 1 | 07:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 18:37 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 09:13 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 00:15 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 2 | 19:26 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 2 | 08:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 1 | 17:04 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |