Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Crosby 57.8% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 69.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 58.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 57.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Duchene
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Duchene
Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Duchene
Crosby
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Crosby
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
57.8% (1,437)
-1.3%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
60.9% (381)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
50.0% (54)
-27.8%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. Crosby is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,257).
Home / Away
Duchene
Crosby
Home
56.6% (318)
59.2% (985)
Away
56.4% (319)
57.2% (887)
By Period
Duchene
Crosby
P1
57.2%
57.3%
P2
55.1%
59.5%
P3
55.6%
58.5%
OT
81.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
59.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 15:30 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 19:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 02:45 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |