Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +14.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 61.5% vs Crosby 48.3% (+14.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 51.5%
Defensive zone
Duchene 92.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 79.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
Duchene
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Crosby
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Crosby
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Crosby
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
62.2% (802)
46.8% (1,360)
+15.4%
Power Play
67.3% (153)
53.8% (357)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
59.4% (143)
45.2% (31)
+14.2%
On even strength, Duchene has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Duchene shoots left. Crosby is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,127).
Home / Away
Duchene
Crosby
Home
66.5% (555)
51.0% (867)
Away
58.6% (543)
45.4% (881)
By Period
Duchene
Crosby
P1
63.2%
50.8%
P2
59.6%
47.9%
P3
65.0%
46.5%
OT
71.4%
35.1%
Final 5 min
65.9%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2017 | 3 | 18:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2017 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2017 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 9, 2017 | 1 | 15:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2017 | 1 | 09:42 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |