Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Johnson 50.7% (+1.6%)
Offensive zone
Duchene 60.3%
Defensive zone
Johnson 54.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 50.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Duchene
Johnson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (193)
47.4% (78)
+6.5%
Power Play
49.2% (65)
57.6% (33)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
100.0% (2)
+0.0%
On power play, Johnson has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Duchene is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. Johnson is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (76).
Home / Away
Duchene
Johnson
Home
54.9% (113)
50.9% (57)
Away
51.4% (146)
51.8% (56)
By Period
Duchene
Johnson
P1
54.9%
44.1%
P2
52.7%
59.4%
P3
51.9%
52.3%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
60.6%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%