Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Johnson 45.7% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 71.8%
Defensive zone
Duchene 70.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 81.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Duchene
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Duchene
Johnson
Last 6: Duchene 4-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Johnson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Johnson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
44.6% (285)
+11.9%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
46.7% (60)
+14.6%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
16.7% (6)
+5.5%
On power play, Duchene has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Johnson is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Duchene
Johnson
Home
56.6% (318)
50.8% (179)
Away
56.4% (319)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Duchene
Johnson
P1
57.2%
41.3%
P2
55.1%
41.8%
P3
55.6%
49.6%
OT
81.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 01:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 17:54 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 03:51 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 17:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 11:54 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |