Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 18 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Johnson 49.7% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 38-19 in 57 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 90.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 84.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 88.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 87.5%
87.5%
12.5%
Duchene
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
38
-
19
(57 meetings)
38
19
Duchene
Johnson
Last 10: Duchene 6-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
10
6
Duchene
Johnson
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
14
9
Duchene
Johnson
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
14
4
Duchene
Johnson
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
49.8% (5,396)
+4.1%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
54.6% (885)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
42.3% (707)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
Duchene
Johnson
Home
55.6% (6,411)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Duchene
Johnson
P1
54.5%
50.1%
P2
54.5%
50.6%
P3
53.4%
48.4%
OT
56.3%
42.5%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 01:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 17:54 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 03:51 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 17:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 11:54 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 3 | 16:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2021 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 15:36 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 3 | 18:32 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 3 | 03:04 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 2 | 16:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 2 | 05:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 3 | 18:38 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 14:54 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 3 | 06:16 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |