Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 50.3% vs Seguin 42.6% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 79.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 81.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 88.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 84.7%
84.7%
15.3%
Duchene
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Duchene
Seguin
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Seguin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
2
Duchene
Seguin
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (933)
41.1% (649)
+8.3%
Power Play
58.7% (104)
54.2% (24)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
25.0% (4)
+22.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Duchene is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Duchene shoots left. Seguin is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (454).
Home / Away
Duchene
Seguin
Home
51.9% (534)
44.4% (338)
Away
48.7% (524)
38.6% (339)
By Period
Duchene
Seguin
P1
51.0%
37.8%
P2
48.8%
45.5%
P3
50.6%
41.9%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.2%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.3%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
41.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 08:43 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 3 | 00:25 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2013 | 1 | 13:01 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2013 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2013 | 1 | 03:18 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 3 | 09:19 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 2 | 11:11 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |