Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Duchene wins 62.7% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.3% vs Seguin 57.4% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 58.2%
Defensive zone
Seguin 84.4%
Neutral zone
Seguin 60.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Duchene
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Duchene
Seguin
Last 8: Duchene 7-1 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
0
Duchene
Seguin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Duchene
Seguin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (579)
59.6% (736)
-3.6%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
61.5% (65)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
47.6% (124)
-22.6%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Duchene is 62.7% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Duchene shoots left. Seguin is 59.1% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Home / Away
Duchene
Seguin
Home
54.9% (375)
60.1% (461)
Away
57.5% (320)
56.3% (464)
By Period
Duchene
Seguin
P1
58.3%
59.1%
P2
56.7%
58.9%
P3
53.1%
57.3%
OT
62.5%
46.7%
Final 5 min
54.5%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.1%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 00:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 5, 2020 | 2 | 13:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 1, 2020 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 1, 2020 | 1 | 09:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 1, 2020 | 1 | 02:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 09:25 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 2 | 03:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |