Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Nylander shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs Nylander 51.2% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 59.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 61.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 59.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Duchene
Nylander
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Duchene
Nylander
Last 7: Duchene 5-2 Nylander
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Nylander
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Nylander
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nylander
1
2
Duchene
Nylander
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Nylander
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,112)
51.7% (574)
+0.9%
Power Play
56.0% (193)
47.9% (73)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (49)
66.7% (3)
-17.7%
On penalty kill, Nylander has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nylander shoots right. Duchene is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Duchene shoots left. Nylander is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Home / Away
Duchene
Nylander
Home
55.7% (652)
51.8% (336)
Away
50.4% (702)
51.0% (314)
By Period
Duchene
Nylander
P1
51.4%
53.6%
P2
53.9%
44.4%
P3
53.3%
55.4%
OT
55.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.0%
Nylander
34.0%▼
44.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 15:14 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 11:55 | Neutral | William Nylander |
| Jan 10, 2018 | 3 | 00:54 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 10, 2018 | 2 | 14:41 | Neutral | William Nylander |
| Jan 10, 2018 | 2 | 09:40 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 10, 2018 | 2 | 05:47 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 10, 2018 | 2 | 03:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |