Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Gourde 48.2% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 17-12 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 85.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 56.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 75.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
Duchene
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
12
(29 meetings)
17
12
Duchene
Gourde
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
1
Duchene
Gourde
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
4
Duchene
Gourde
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
4
7
Duchene
Gourde
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
48.4% (4,954)
+5.5%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
57.4% (376)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
39.9% (554)
+9.2%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
Duchene
Gourde
Home
55.6% (6,411)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Duchene
Gourde
P1
54.5%
49.9%
P2
54.5%
47.4%
P3
53.4%
47.5%
OT
56.3%
37.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:45 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 06:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 17:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 18:21 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:32 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:02 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 08:37 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 08:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 01:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 06:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 1 | 01:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 3 | 07:07 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 3 | 03:32 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 01:41 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |