Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Gourde 49.7% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 52.8%
Defensive zone
Gourde 57.1%
Neutral zone
Gourde 55.6%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Duchene
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Duchene
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Duchene
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
2
Duchene
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
51.2% (469)
+1.8%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
42.9% (21)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
37.5% (48)
+6.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Gourde is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Duchene
Gourde
Home
54.9% (408)
47.8% (301)
Away
50.0% (432)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Duchene
Gourde
P1
52.5%
47.3%
P2
51.7%
53.4%
P3
53.6%
48.6%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.3%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:45 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |