Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +16.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Poitras wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poitras 45.5% vs Sturm 59.0% (-16.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poitras 68.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 74.1%
Neutral zone
Poitras 51.8%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Poitras
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Poitras
Sturm
Last 7: Poitras 3-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Poitras
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Poitras
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poitras
2
1
Poitras
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poitras
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (245)
60.6% (708)
-17.3%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
61.1% (18)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
56.4% (101)
+10.3%
On even strength, Sturm has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Poitras is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Poitras shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Poitras
Sturm
Home
44.6% (121)
61.6% (451)
Away
42.9% (133)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Poitras
Sturm
P1
41.5%
55.9%
P2
45.4%
58.9%
P3
44.4%
64.6%
Final 5 min
40.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poitras
42.0%▼
44.5%
43.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:20 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 12:08 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 11:56 | Neutral | Matthew Poitras |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | Matthew Poitras |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 16:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Matthew Poitras |