Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Poitras wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poitras 45.3% vs Sturm 56.1% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poitras 74.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 83.9%
Neutral zone
Sturm 50.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Poitras
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Poitras
Sturm
Last 7: Poitras 3-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Poitras
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Poitras
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poitras
2
1
Poitras
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poitras
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (388)
57.1% (2,719)
-13.5%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
61.3% (62)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
51.0% (498)
+15.7%
On penalty kill, Poitras has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Poitras is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (283).
Poitras shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Poitras
Sturm
Home
43.6% (195)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
44.7% (206)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Poitras
Sturm
P1
42.6%
56.5%
P2
45.5%
54.9%
P3
44.1%
57.4%
Final 5 min
41.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poitras
42.0%▼
44.5%
44.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:20 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 12:08 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 11:56 | Neutral | Matthew Poitras |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | Matthew Poitras |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 16:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Matthew Poitras |