Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Domi on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Domi 48.8% vs Sturm 56.1% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Domi 79.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 76.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 51.7%
Result
Max Domi favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Domi
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Domi
Sturm
Last 10: Domi 5-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
4
2
Domi
Sturm
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Domi
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Domi
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Domi
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (4,296)
57.1% (2,719)
-9.0%
Power Play
53.4% (633)
61.3% (62)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (41)
51.0% (498)
-2.2%
On even strength, Sturm has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Domi is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,341).
Domi shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Domi
Sturm
Home
49.7% (2,604)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
47.8% (2,366)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Domi
Sturm
P1
48.7%
56.5%
P2
48.3%
54.9%
P3
49.8%
57.4%
OT
43.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
51.0%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
48.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 03:49 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 02:35 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 02:23 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:16 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 02:30 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 25, 2023 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 07:35 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |