Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). McCarron wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.5% vs Frost 55.7% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 96.5%
Defensive zone
McCarron 67.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 74.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
McCarron
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
McCarron
Frost
Last 10: McCarron 6-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
3
McCarron
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
6
1
McCarron
Frost
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (672)
55.0% (686)
-1.9%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
60.8% (166)
-42.6%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (205)
100.0% (5)
-46.3%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +46.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
McCarron shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
McCarron
Frost
Home
52.8% (477)
56.1% (428)
Away
52.8% (411)
56.6% (429)
By Period
McCarron
Frost
P1
56.5%
58.9%
P2
53.2%
55.4%
P3
49.0%
54.1%
OT
0.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Frost
66.0%▲
60.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:38 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:33 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:19 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:15 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |