Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.8% vs Frost 49.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 81.6%
Defensive zone
McCarron 75.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 52.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
McCarron
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McCarron
Frost
Last 5: McCarron 1-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
McCarron
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
McCarron
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
2
McCarron
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (618)
48.6% (704)
+5.9%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
55.7% (115)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (34)
25.0% (4)
+10.3%
On power play, Frost has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. McCarron is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (463).
McCarron shoots right. Frost is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
McCarron
Frost
Home
52.2% (339)
49.9% (399)
Away
54.2% (332)
49.1% (424)
By Period
McCarron
Frost
P1
53.5%
51.2%
P2
50.6%
53.9%
P3
55.9%
42.7%
Final 5 min
45.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.2%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 19:59 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 07:24 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 2 | 19:35 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |