Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. McCarron wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.5% vs Cates 45.5% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 83.6%
Defensive zone
McCarron 78.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 57.1%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
McCarron
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McCarron
Cates
Last 5: McCarron 2-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
McCarron
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
0
McCarron
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
McCarron
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (672)
45.4% (712)
+7.7%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
42.2% (102)
-24.0%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (205)
44.7% (47)
+9.0%
On power play, Cates has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
McCarron shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
McCarron
Cates
Home
52.8% (477)
46.3% (423)
Away
52.8% (411)
43.6% (438)
By Period
McCarron
Cates
P1
56.5%
46.3%
P2
53.2%
47.1%
P3
49.0%
42.1%
OT
0.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
52.3%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 07:58 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 06:08 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Noah Cates |