Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.7% vs Cates 43.2% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 72.6%
Defensive zone
McCarron 68.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 57.6%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
McCarron
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
McCarron
Cates
Last 9: McCarron 4-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
McCarron
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
4
0
McCarron
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
McCarron
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (2,901)
44.1% (2,742)
+9.3%
Power Play
45.3% (86)
43.0% (242)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (463)
34.9% (373)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McCarron is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,403).
McCarron shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
McCarron
Cates
Home
52.3% (1,696)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
53.3% (1,754)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
McCarron
Cates
P1
53.9%
44.5%
P2
52.5%
43.5%
P3
52.0%
41.2%
OT
33.3%
29.4%
Final 5 min
50.7%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 07:58 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 06:08 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:22 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 05:03 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |