Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. McCarron wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 54.0% vs Cates 45.1% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 63.1%
Defensive zone
McCarron 70.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 54.3%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
McCarron
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
McCarron
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
McCarron
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
0
McCarron
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
McCarron
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (756)
46.7% (912)
+7.5%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
33.9% (56)
+21.7%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (158)
35.0% (137)
+20.1%
On power play, McCarron has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
McCarron shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
McCarron
Cates
Home
54.6% (445)
46.1% (521)
Away
54.2% (478)
43.3% (584)
By Period
McCarron
Cates
P1
53.6%
48.0%
P2
55.6%
42.3%
P3
53.7%
44.3%
OT
100.0%
31.3%
Final 5 min
53.5%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:22 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 05:03 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |